UKUNationals 2012 Preview

A pretty interesting preview of the division overall has been written by "The Secret Frizzer" here.
It puts us finishing in fourth behind Clapham, Fire and Chevron.
Here's my take:

Game 1 vs Cambridge

We've played Cambridge once this season. It started with me scoring a callaghan on the first point and finished with a 15-6 victory and entry into the top 8 of UKUTour3 . This game was a real statement game for us, our defense put big pressure on and our offense only had one turnover the entire game. This game will be a great way to start nationals. Cambridge will be gunning for revenge, and, after taking the 7 ranking based on the 3 tour events, will see our 7th seed going in as where they deserve to be. The weather prediction (according to the BBC) is for rain and wind, which will mimic our tour 3 victory over cambridge. Cambridge finished second in their region to a restrengthened EMO meaning EMO goes in ranked 6th and Cambridge go in ranked 10th. This game ultimately doesn't doom the loser to the bottom 8, but will mean that the loser will be battling against higher ranked teams most of the weekend to get into the Top 8 and stay there. I see Ka-pow coming out strong in our first trip to Nationals as a squad under our resolve to take a European qualification spot and our confidence at beating Clapham in the scrimmage last weekend.

Game 2 (assuming a Ka-Pow win) v Chevron

Essentially, this could be our quarter final. Chevron have been the runner up at Nationals and at the Tour for the last two years and will be gunning to finally break Clapham's 11 year streak. Two years ago, Clapham dominated Chevron in the final 15:5, and last year Chevron took Clapham to 15:12. After beating Clapham in the UKUTour2 final this year, Chevron will see this as a huge chance to dethrone Clapham (as they must do every year). Ka-Pow would LOVE LOVE LOVE to take some scalps and if we play our game I can see us pushing Chevron into a close game, and there shouldn't be any reason why we can't take it.
Chevron took the 2nd place at Tour this year as well, even though they were missing some stars to GB and it certainly seemed like at Tour 3 the GB stars propelled the teams that they returned to (Ka-Pow included).
The winner of this game is guaranteed a shot at the final, again the loser can finish as high as third due to the nationals tournament structure, but can also drop out of the top 8 altogether. Conventional thinking would give this game to Chevron meaning Ka-Pow would finish the Saturday with a game against either EMO, Wessex or Fire.

I really hesitate to predict any further because I really think Ka-Pow have a genuine chance against Chevron.

Our aim is to qualify for Europeans. I really see us taking a spot but every game will be a battle. We need to have our offense firing liking it was at UKUTour3 and our defense converting breaks like it was at UKUTour3 and in our friendly game against Clapham.

The games to watch this weekend according to "The Secret Frizzer" are:

Tooting v Fusion in the first round: I agree, this will be a hard fought contest in which I see Fusion winning in their attempt to climb the rankings and set up a second round game where they will be gunning to knock Clapham off the top spot.

EMO v Wessex in the first round: Despite the result at Tour2 which saw Wessex beat EMO and eventually finish in the Top 12, EMO have got GB Open players back and come in off winning their Regionals over Cambridge and Wessex coming in over qualifying in the third spot from theirs. I see EMO winning in a close one.

DED v Brighton in the second round (quarterfinal): I see this being closer than contests over the Tour season with Brighton having several veterans returning. I'm not sure I can be confident calling this game but if I had to I'd go with DED after their very strong season, but it'll definitely be a close one.

My games to watch:

Ka-Pow vs Chevron (reasons discussed above)
All games on Sunday. There are bound to be a few upsets along the way and we may see some strange finishing positions. Northern regionals was surprising enough.

My predictions for the European qualification spots (Conservative):

1. Clapham
2. Chevron
3. Kapow!
4. Fire
5. Fusion (People seem to have forgotten that Fusion have been to Semi's and European's before)

My predictions (Aspirational):

1. Clapham/Kapow!
2. Clapham/Kapow!
3. Chevron
4. Fire
5. Fusion


The only thing left to say, but good luck to all teams this weekend and I'm sure the UK will represent well whoever goes to Europeans in each of the Elite and Challenger divisions.